Atlantic cod

The Southern substock of Northern Shelf cod is below safe biological levels and fishing pressure is too high. There is no precautionary recovery plan in place. Therefore, this substock receives a critical fail for stock status and is a default red rating.In 2023, ICES carried out a benchmark of two cod stocks: North Sea, eastern English Channel and Skagerrak, and West of Scotland. As a result, the understanding of the stock structure has changed substantially. These two stocks were merged into one: North Sea, West of Scotland, eastern English Channel, and Skagerrak. However, this new stock has three substocks:Northwestern: West of Scotland (6a) and western part of the Central (4b) and Northern (4a) North SeaViking: the Skagerrak (3a.20) and the eastern part of the Northern (4a) and Central (4b) North SeaSouthern: the southern part of the Central (4b) North Sea and all of the Southern (4c) North Sea, and the Eastern English Channel (7d)As a result, the perception of these new substocks is different from previous years and is not comparable to previous advice, before the 2023 benchmark.There is some uncertainty in the new stock assessments and ICES has indicated that catches by substock should not be taken as area-specific advice. The three substocks have different spawning grounds and biological characteristics, such as growth and time of sexual maturity. During spawning season and when the cod are young the substocks are not believed to mix, therefore it is possible to assess spawning stock biomass for each individual substock. However, they do mix at other times of year and further research and genetic data is needed to improve estimates of fishing mortality and provide specific catch advice.Overall, ICES is confident that there are three substocks, and that they can estimate their individual biomass sizes, but cannot accurately estimate catches or fishing mortality at the substock level.In 2023, the observed catches for all substocks combined were 14% lower than the ICES estimates, compared to 2022 where they were 33% lower.This rating is for the Southern substock.This stock is assessed by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). The stock assessment defines reference points for fishing pressure (F) and biomass (B). For fishing pressure, there is a target to keep F at or below Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY). For biomass, there is no target. However, there is a trigger point (MSY BTrigger). Below this level, F should be reduced to allow the stock to increase. Because BMSY is not defined, the Good Fish Guide applies its own definition of 1.4 x MSY BTrigger.In 2023, the fishing pressure (F) was 0.43, which is 86% above the level associated with Maximum Sustainable Yield FMSY (0.231) but below the precautionary limit (Fpa, 0.464). The total estimated catch was 5476 tonnes. Therefore, estimated fishing pressure is too high and the substock is subject to overfishing.In 2024, the reproductive capacity of the stock - or spawning stock biomass (SSB), was 11,981t: below biologically safe limits (Blim, 14,002t). This substock is therefore in a severely depleted state, with a high risk of reduced recruitment.Because of the uncertainty about how much the substocks are mixing, ICES have advised a precautionary approach to protect the weakest substock (southern). ICES advises the Northwest and Viking substocks to follow the MSY approach with precautionary considerations. Under these approaches, catches in 2025 should be no more than 19,321 tonnes total, which corresponds to 12,158 tonnes from the northwestern substock, 4,089 tonnes from the Viking substock, and 3,074 tonnes from the southern substock. This is a 22% decrease in advice for the Southern substock, due to lower stock size estimates and lower incoming recruitment.If the advice is followed (MSY approach), the southern substock’s SSB will increase by 51% to 21,693t, which would be above MSY BTrigger.Atlantic cod is listed by OSPAR as a threatened and/or declining species. Recruitment of young fish into the stock has been poor since 1998. This is likely owing to a combination of long-term overfishing, which reduced the stock to low levels, and rising sea temperatures. North Sea surface temperatures have increased by 1.68 degrees since 1960. Further increases are expected, and predictions indicate that the North Sea stock is unlikely to recover substantially as a result.Between 1975 and 2005, the size at which cod matures reduced from around 75cm to 45cm. This is likely to be, in part, fisheries-induced evolution, especially for male cod. Rising temperatures are also a factor, especially for female cod.

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