Atlantic cod

North Sea cod is below safe biological levels and and there is no precautionary recovery plan in place. Therefore, it receives a critical fail for stock status and is a default red rating. Atlantic cod is listed by OSPAR as a threatened and/or declining species.The North Sea cod stock has been declining since the early 1970s, when the spawning stock biomass (SSB) was over 200,000 tonnes. It reached an all-time low of 32,000 tonnes in the mid-2000s, before making a small recovery to 85,000 tonnes in 2016. It has declined again since then, and in 2022 is 52,241 tonnes. This is below safe biological limits (BLim, 69,841t) and some way from target levels (MSY BTrigger, 97,777t). The stock has not been at target levels since 1998. The stock is therefore in a very overfished state, and suffering reduced reproductive capacity.Fishing mortality (F) has been above levels associated with Maximum Sustainable Yield (FMSY, 0.28) since the 1960s. For most of that time it has been above the upper limit (Flim, 0.58), putting the stock under very high pressure. However, F has fallen sharply in 2018 and in 2021 it was 0.26 - below FMSY. North Sea cod is therefore not subject to overfishing.ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2023 should be no more than 22,946t. This is a 61% increase on last year's advice, and a 44% increase on last year's catch limit. This is because the stock size has increased.At that catch level, there is still a 17% probability that the stock will be below Blim in 2024 - an improvement on previous years, but higher than the target probability of 5%. Therefore, setting catches at these recommended levels is not a precautionary approach. A zero catch results in a 1.6% probability that the stock will be below Blim.Recruitment of young fish into the stock has been poor since 1998. This is likely owing to a combination of long-term overfishing, which reduced the stock to low levels, and rising sea temperatures. North Sea surface temperatures have increased by 1.68 degrees since 1960. Further increases are expected, and predictions indicate that the North Sea stock is unlikely to recover substantially as a result.There are sub-stocks in different areas of the North Sea: Viking in the north east, and Dogger, which covers the rest of the area. The southern North Sea population appears to have collapsed, as recent surveys show no rebuilding.Between 1975 and 2005, the size at which cod matures reduced from around 75cm to 45cm. This is likely to be, in part, fisheries-induced evolution, especially for male cod. Rising temperatures are also a factor, especially for female cod.

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