Atlantic cod

West of Scotland cod is below safe biological levels and there are no measures or plans in place to help it recover. Therefore, it receives a critical fail for stock status and is a default red rating.The West of Scotland cod stock has been declining since the early 1980s, when the spawning stock biomass (SSB) was over 40,000 tonnes. It fell below the target (MSY BTrigger, 20,126t) in the early 1990s and the point of reproductive impairment (BLim,14,376t) about 5 years later. It has been below Blim since then. In 2022 it is 4,558t, just 30% of Blim and 20% of the target size. The stock is therefore in a very overfished state, outside safe biological limits, and suffering reduced reproductive capacity. Recruitment of young fish into the stock has been very low since 2001, and below the long-term average. Recruitment in 2018 was estimated to be the lowest on record, and after a small increase in 2019 it has again declined. Fishing mortality (F) has been above levels associated with Maximum Sustainable Yield (FMSY, 0.30) since before the 1980s. In 2021 it was 0.95, above FMSY and the upper limit, where there is an increased risk of causing stock depletion (Flim, 0.73). West of Scotland cod is therefore subject to intense overfishing.ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, there should be zero catches in each of the years 2023 and 2024. Zero-catch recommendations have been given every year since the fishery was recommended to be closed in 2003. This is because there are no catch scenarios that will rebuild the stock above Blim in the short term. Zero catch in 2023 is projected to allow the SSB to increase by 62%, although it would remain well below Blim. If fishing pressure in 2023 remains the same as it was in 2022, SSB is projected to decrease by 5.6%. Stock structure remains an issue for cod in Division 6.a. The issues of multiple stocks in Division 6.a and connectivity with the North Sea stock remain sources of uncertainty. Cod to the west of Scotland (Division 6a) are believed to comprise at least two subpopulations and are potentially linked to cod in the northern North Sea (4a). The current assessment and management does not capture this dynamic as they are treated independently. Grey seal abundance is significant to the west of Scotland, and grey seals are known to feed on cod among other species. It is suggested that seal predation may be impairing recovery of this stock.

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