The stock is at a critical level despite fishing pressure moving below sustainable limits. The population has been below safe biological limits since 2007. Therefore, it receives a critical fail for stock status and is a default red rating.Stock assessments are carried out annually by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). The most recent stock assessment was published in 2025 using data up to 2024. The next assessment is expected in 2026.The stock assessment defines reference points for fishing pressure (F) and biomass (B). For fishing pressure, there is a target to keep F at or below Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY). For biomass, there is no target. However, there is a trigger point (MSY BTrigger). Below this level, F should be reduced to allow the stock to increase. Because BMSY is not defined, the Good Fish Guide applies its own definition of 1.4 x MSY BTrigger.The stock is at a critical level and fishing pressure remains above sustainable limits, while continuing against advice. The spawning stock biomass (SSB) has been below the biomass limit since 2007. Recruitment has been low since the mid-2000s although there have been increases seen in 2023 and 2025.In 2024, the biomass was 54,338 tonnes and predicted to be 62,751 tonnes in 2025. This does show an increase compared to the previous 5-year average 2020-2024 (44,320 tonnes). However, the stock is still well below safe biological limits (Blim: 120,000 tonnes) and thus receives a critical fail.Fishing mortality (F) has declined since 2021 from 0.22 to 0.070 in 2024 and is below the Maximum Sustainable Yield (FMSY) of 0.31.ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches should be zero in 2026. This advice applies to the catch of Western Baltic Spring Spawning (WBSS) herring stock in subdivisions 20-24 and the eastern part of Subarea 4. All catch scenarios, including zero catch, result in SSB remaining below Blim in 2027.ICES has provided estimates of the estimated catches of WBSS herring (Clupea harengus), under the assumption that only the fleets that target other species or stocks will be fishing in 2026. For herring (Clupea harengus) in subdivisions 20-24, 5,138 tonnes of spring spawners (Skagerrak, Kattegat, and western Baltic) are estimated to be caught, assuming the same catch as in the intermediate year 2024 for the human-consumption fleet in the North Sea (fleet A), which targets North Sea autumn-spawning herring.Herring populations form a continuous chain extending from the North Sea to the northernmost parts of the Baltic Sea. The herring assessed in the western Baltic (3a.20-24) is a complex mixture of populations predominantly spawning in the spring, but with local components also spawning in autumn and winter. The population dynamics and the relative contribution of these components is presently unknown, but are likely to affect the precision of the assessment. Moreover, mixing between WBSS and central Baltic herring within subdivisions may contribute to uncertainty in the assessment. WBSS migrate to feeding areas in the Kattegat, Skagerrak and the eastern part the North Sea, where they mix with the North Sea herring.
