Atlantic cod

Gadus morhua

5: Avoid How we work out the ratings

What to check for

Location

Northern Shelf: Viking substock: All areas

Technical location

27 - Atlantic, Northeast, 4b: North Sea (Central), 4a: North Sea (North), 3a.20: Skagerrak

Caught by

Bottom trawl (otter)

Rating summary

Scientific advice recommends zero-catch for the all Northern Shelf cod, but this advice is not being followed, resulting in a default red rating. Management has not historically been appropriate for protecting and recovering cod stocks in this area. Most cod catches are by otter trawls, which are likely to cause some damage to the seabed and bycatch other species.Rating last updated December 2025.

How we worked out this Rating

Scientific advice recommends zero-catch for the all Northern Shelf cod, but this advice is not being followed, resulting in a default red rating.In 2023, ICES carried out a benchmark of two cod stocks: North Sea, eastern English Channel and Skagerrak, and West of Scotland. As a result, the understanding of the stock structure has changed substantially. These two stocks were merged into one: North Sea, West of Scotland, eastern English Channel, and Skagerrak. However, this new stock has three substocks:Northwestern: West of Scotland (6a) and western part of the Central (4b) and Northern (4a) North SeaViking: the Skagerrak (3a.20) and the eastern part of the Northern (4a) and Central (4b) North SeaSouthern: the southern part of the Central (4b) North Sea and all of the Southern (4c) North Sea, and the Eastern English Channel (7d)As a result, the perception of these new substocks is different from previous years and is not comparable to previous advice, before the 2023 benchmark.There is some uncertainty in the new stock assessments and ICES has indicated that catches by substock should not be taken as area-specific advice. The three substocks have different spawning grounds and biological characteristics, such as growth and time of sexual maturity. During spawning season and when the cod are young the substocks are not believed to mix, therefore it is possible to assess spawning stock biomass for each individual substock. However, they do mix at other times of year and further research and genetic data is needed to improve estimates of fishing mortality and provide specific catch advice.Overall, ICES is confident that there are three substocks, and that they can estimate their individual biomass sizes, but cannot accurately estimate catches or fishing mortality at the substock level.In 2024, the observed catches for all substocks combined were 18% lower than the ICES estimates, compared to 2023 where they were 23% lower.This rating is for the Viking substock.This stock is assessed by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). The stock assessment defines reference points for fishing pressure (F) and biomass (B). For fishing pressure, there is a target to keep F at or below Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY). For biomass, there is no target. However, there is a trigger point (MSY BTrigger). Below this level, F should be reduced to allow the stock to increase. Because BMSY is not defined, the Good Fish Guide (GFG) applies its own definition of 1.4 x MSY BTrigger.In 2024, the fishing pressure (F) was 0.34, which is above the level associated with Maximum Sustainable Yield, FMSY (0.187), and 11% higher than the precautionary limit Fpa (0.307). The total estimated catch was 10,520 tonnes. This indicates that fishing pressure was too high and is subject to overfishing.In 2025, the spawning stock biomass (SSB) was 12,750 tonnes, below MSY Btrigger (13,732 tonnes) but still above the precautionary reference points Bpa GFG proxy (11,676t) and Blim (9,619t). This indicates that the substock is overfished. SSB in 2024 was 14,031t slightly above MSY Btrigger (13,732t), showing that the stock has declined significantly between 2024 and 2025.Because there is uncertainty about the degree of mixing between the substocks, ICES advises a precautionary approach that protects the weakest substock (the southern). ICES recommends that the Northwest and Viking substocks follow the MSY approach with precautionary considerations. Under these approaches, all substocks should have zero catch in 2026.If the advice is followed (using the MSY approach with precautionary considerations) the Viking substock’s SSB is projected to increase by 37%, reaching 15,141 tonnes. In contrast, if fishing pressure remains at 2025 levels, the SSB is expected to decline by 25% to 8,327 tonnes.Atlantic cod is listed by OSPAR as a threatened and/or declining species. Recruitment of young fish has remained poor since 1998, likely due to the combined effects of long‑term overfishing, which drove the stock to low levels, and rising sea temperatures. Since 1960, North Sea surface temperatures have risen by 1.68°C, with further warming anticipated. As a result, predictions suggest that the North Sea cod stock is unlikely to recover substantially.Between 1975 and 2005, the size at maturity for cod decreased from approximately 75 cm to 45 cm. This trend is thought to reflect fisheries‑induced evolution, particularly affecting male cod, while increasing temperatures are also believed to contribute, especially in females.

References

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European Commission, 2025. Agreed record of fisheries consultations between the united kingdom, the European union and Norway for 2026. Published 5 December 2025. Available at: https://oceans-and-fisheries.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-norway-and-uk-agree-fishing-opportunities-north-sea-2026-2025-12-05_en#:~:text=On%205%20December%2C%20the%20EU,fleet%2C%20worth%20609%20million%20euros.[Accessed on 09.12.2025].

EU, 2023. Council Regulation (EU) 2022/109 of 27 January 2022 fixing for 2022 the fishing opportunities for certain fish stocks and groups of fish stocks applicable in Union waters and for Union fishing vessels in certain non-Union waters. Available at https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex%3A32023R1324. [Accessed on 09.12.2025].

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Marty, L., Rochet, M., & Ernande, B., 2014. Temporal trends in age and size at maturation of four North Sea gadid species: cod, haddock, whiting and Norway pout. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 497, 179-197. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps10580.

MMO, 2025. UK National North Sea Cod Avoidance Plan. Document No: V4. Update: Jan 2025. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69650464e8b93f59c3aecce7/UK_National_Cod_Avoidance_Plan_-_Updated_Jan_2026.pdf [Accessed on 09.12.2025].

OSPAR, 2021. List of Threatened and/or Declining Species and Habitats: Cod. Available at: https://www.ospar.org/work-areas/bdc/species-habitats/list-of-threatened-declining-species-habitats/fish/cod [Accessed on 09.12.2025].

Scottish Government, 2022. Publication - Minutes. Offshore MPA Fisheries Measures: West Shetland Shelf - 27 January 2022. Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/offshore-mpa-fisheries-measures-west-shetland-shelf-27-january-2022/ [Accessed on 16.07.2024].

Scottish Government, 2023. Publication - Consultation paper: Clyde cod spawning closure Spring 2024/25: consultation. Published: 30 June 2023. Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/consultation-clyde-cod-spawning-closure-spring-2024-25/ [Accessed on 16.07.2024].

Sguotti, C., Otto, S.A., Frelat, R., Langbehn, T.J., Plambech Ryberg, M., Lindegren, M., Durant, J.M., Stenseth, N.C. and Möllmann, C., 2019. Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery. Proc. R. Soc. B.: 286. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2877.

Silva, F., Ellis, J. & Catchpole, T., 2012. Species composition of skates (Rajidae) in commercial fisheries around the British Isles and their discarding patterns. J Fish Biol., 80:1678–1703

van Denderen, P. Bolam, S., Hiddink, J.G., Jennings, S., Kenny, A., Rijnsdorp, A., and van Kooten, T., 2015. Similar effects of bottom trawling and natural disturbance on composition and function of benthic communities across habitats. Mar Ecol Prog Ser. 2015;541:31–43

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